UBS expects bonds and stocks to rise in 2024 on U.S. soft landing

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LONDON (Reuters) – U.S economic growth is set to slow but remain positive in 2024, European growth will remain subdued and China will see lower but ‘potentially higher quality growth’ UBS Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office said on Thursday.

Their base-case scenario for 2024 sees equities and bonds both delivering positive returns, as slowing U.S. economic growth, falling inflation and lower rate expectations drive yields down, which should support equities.

The absence of a severe U.S. recession should mean companies can continue to grow earnings, UBS said.

That scenario sees the at 4,700 points at the end of the year, up from 4,502 as of Wednesday’s close the U.S. 10-year yield at 3.5% – it was at 4.506% on Thursday – and the euro at $1.12 – last $1.085.

In addition, they expect geopolitics to play an outsized role in 2024 – “The U.S. presidential election, the ongoing Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars, and the rivalry between the U.S. and China could all affect markets globally. Investors should prepare for bouts of politically driven volatility and consider hedges.”

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